Ole Miss Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the 2024 season (2024)

Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Ole Miss. We’ll preview every team in the 16-team SEC.

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Go back to 2012 or 1970. Either year works.

In 2012, Lane Kiffin started as the head coach of the preseason No. 1 team in America ahead of Year 3 at USC. It was supposed to be when he took that next step and cemented himself as one the best coaches in the sport with a potential national championship.

In 1970, Ole Miss started as the No. 5 team in the AP Poll. A decade removed from its first national title in program history, there was hope that Archie Manning would end that decade-long drought.

The former ended with 7 wins and a loss in El Paso. The latter ended with 7 wins and a loss in Jacksonville. National championship seasons, they were not. You could argue that they both carry some historical reference entering Ole Miss’ 2024 season.

A No. 6 ranking in the preseason AP Poll is the program’s best since the Richard Nixon administration in 1970. It’s also the first time that Kiffin will coach a preseason top-15 team since the failed 2012 USC squad. In 12 seasons as a head coach, Kiffin has never started and finished as a top-15 team. The last time Ole Miss accomplished that feat was … also in the Nixon administration, in 1969.

Ole Miss earned the right to be in that historical discussion after it capped its first 11-win season in school history. Of course, the 12-team Playoff and a (potentially) favorable schedule only added to the offseason discussion for a program that returns 70% of last year’s production (No. 22 in FBS).

Have the Ole Miss defensive additions bridged the gap?

From 2015-23, Ole Miss didn’t have a top-30 defense. Mind you, that was 9 seasons of non-top 30 defenses after 2014 Ole Miss had the nation’s top unit.

Dare I say, the 2024 defense might end that drought. Why? Well, in case you haven’t heard, Ole Miss made a few notable defensive additions from SEC programs this offseason:

DT Walter Nolen (Texas A&M)
Edge Princely Umanmielen (Florida)
LB Chris Paul Jr. (Arkansas)
CB Trey Amos (Alabama)

All of those guys could earn All-SEC nods, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising. Nolen and Umanmielen joined a defensive line that already looked promising with JJ Pegues and Jared Ivey both back after the former transfers both had productive Year 1s in Oxford.

Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!

The question is if that’ll be the foundation for a “best defense in a decade” unit. Kiffin cited that as the primary factor to bridge the gap between Ole Miss and Georgia, which looked significant last year when they met in Athens. Nolen is getting first-round NFL Draft buzz while Umanmielen was Florida’s only All-SEC defensive player in the past 3 seasons.

In short, DC Pete Golding has no excuses. Anything short of a top-30 defense would be a disappointment, especially if that’s what prevents Ole Miss from making the Playoff.

What’s Jaxson Dart’s upside? Have we seen it yet?

I’ve asked that question a lot this offseason. I have Dart as the No. 6 quarterback in America, but behind the likes of Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers and Jalen Milroe in the SEC. Is it possible that he’s better than all of them by season’s end? That’s on the table.

The surroundings are ideal. Dart’s pass-catchers got even better with Juice Wells coming in after a lost season at South Carolina. Combined with Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins and preseason All-SEC tight end Caden Prieskorn, it’s fair to wonder if Ole Miss has the best group of pass-catchers in America. Add in the 3 returning starters on the offensive line to a ground game that’s never averaged worse than 176 yards in the Kiffin era, and yeah, there’s a lot to like with Dart’s surroundings.

Would Ole Miss have preferred to have a pre-Draft Quinshon Judkins? Sure, but the “Portal King” addressed that, too, with boomerang transfer Henry Parrish (shoutout to Phillip Dukes for coining that phrase) and LSU transfer Logan Diggs, who is working his way back from injury.

That’s all good news for Dart, who played significantly better against quality foes in 2023 than he did in 2022. Can he become an even more effective runner? And can he carve up an elite defense like Georgia? That’s the only thing holding Dart back from being on whatever the top tier of the sport is.

Perhaps that’s forthcoming in Year 3.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Furman (W)

The Ultimate Good Vibes Team of the offseason will have more of those when Parrish waltzes into the end zone twice in a game that’s over after the game’s first drive.

Week 2: vs. Middle Tennessee (W)

Derek Mason! Unfortunately for Mason, he realizes that just like his Vandy team, facing a prolific SEC offense is an uphill climb. Ole Miss shatters its sideline basketball hoop rim from too many post-touchdown dunks.

Week 3: at Wake Forest (W)

This is the first game where it’s evident how unfair it is that Ole Miss added Wells to a receiving corps that already had Harris, Watkins and Prieskorn. It’s the South Carolina transfer’s turn to go off. In a 175-yard day on the road, Wake Forest can’t come up with any remedy to slow down Wells … other than him being taken out of the game because Ole Miss is up 4 touchdowns in the 4th quarter.

Week 4: vs. Georgia Southern (W)

In a game of former USC head coaches, Kiffin gets the upper hand on Clay Helton. A dominant offensive showing closes out nonconference play with a comfortable 4-0.

Week 5: vs. Kentucky (W)

Unlike 2 years ago when they played as top-15 teams, Kentucky doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain with that. For all the talk about how much Ole Miss will be better against teams like UGA with those defensive line additions, this is a matchup in which Ole Miss’ front takes over. UK can’t find an answer for Umanmielen, who sacks Brock Vandagriff twice. With UK still searching for options in the ground game, Ole Miss flexes a bit with a 3-score victory.

Week 6: at South Carolina (W)

There will be moments in which LaNorris Sellers looks like the best player on the field and Ole Miss is in over its head in its first SEC road trip of the season. Perhaps it’s looking ahead to LSU or perhaps its just that South Carolina is a difficult place to play, but whatever the case, a 4-quarter game ensues. On the road, it’s Ulysses Bentley IV who steps up for Ole Miss. In his best day since transferring from SMU, Bentley scores a rushing and a receiving touchdown in the second half to prevent another classic Shane Beamer home upset.

Week 7: at LSU (L)

A Brian Kelly-Kiffin battle of unbeatens? Please and thank you. Just like the first 2 times they met, it lives up to the billing. Also just like those first 2 times, the home team gets the last laugh. Ole Miss’ improved defensive line doesn’t get dominated by LSU, but the Tigers keep Garrett Nussmeier clean in a game that launches him firmly into the Heisman Trophy discussion. The blistering defensive start for Ole Miss comes to a screeching halt in Death Valley.

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: vs. Oklahoma (W)

In one of the sneakier big-time matchups of the season, it’s an emotional roller coaster from start to finish. Dart shakes off a couple of missed opportunities early and leads Ole Miss back from a 2-score deficit. But after taking the lead for good early in the 4th quarter, Dart opts to try and run through Oklahoma linebacker Danny Stutsman instead of getting out of bounds. That proves costly. Ole Miss gets a late stop to preserve the thrilling win, but attention shifts to the ailing Dart ahead of a pivotal stretch. It’s officially Walker Howard time.

Week 10: at Arkansas (W)

In another possible opportunity to change the course of the season with a juicy home matchup, Arkansas comes up short against a well-rounded Ole Miss squad. Against his former team, Chris Paul Jr. has an SEC Defensive Player of the Week performance. He records multiple sacks and forces a fumble in what turns out to be a frustrating day for the Arkansas offense. Howard effectively executes a game manager role and wins his first career start.

Week 11: vs. Georgia (L)

Ole Miss’ additions on the defensive line will help bridge the gap between itself and Georgia. Nolen and Umanmielen will be steady forces for an improved defensive line. But that didn’t necessarily answer the other question — are we sure that Kiffin’s offense can move the ball against Georgia, especially with Dart on the shelf? Because last year, Ole Miss didn’t have a touchdown drive in the final 44 minutes. I don’t suspect that’ll repeat in Oxford, but I do expect Georgia to get enough stops to pull out an impressive road victory. Howard is overwhelmed and Ole Miss gets a frustrating reminder that UGA is still the standard to chase.

Week 12: Bye

Week 13: at Florida (W)

Just when Florida thinks it’s out of the woods, Kiffin comes into the Sunshine State and puts on an offensive clinic. Coming off the Ole Miss bye week, Dart returns from injury and looks like the best version of himself. Florida, on the other hand, looks like a group that’s the worst version of itself on defense. The grind of the Gators’ November slate rears its ugly head in what turns out to be a 42-24 Ole Miss victory. Billy Napier’s future again becomes priority No. 1.

Week 14: vs. Mississippi State (W)

Let me just say I hate that this game isn’t being played on Thanksgiving. I know that hasn’t always been the tradition, but I loved this being the standalone game that we could all settle into while the tryptophan hit and we debated just how many leftovers were worth piling onto our plates. But on Black Friday, Ole Miss shows up with a greater sense of urgency to win the game. The over/under on fights is 1.5 for the first Kiffin/Jeff Lebby showdown (between the players, probably not the coaches). The over/under on Ole Miss points should be 40. In Oxford, Playoff-bound Ole Miss cruises.

2024 Projection: 10-2 (6-2), 4th in SEC

12-team Playoff berth? Yes

Getting to Atlanta for the first time would be great. Getting to the Playoff for the first time would be better. The latter is more important for 2024 Ole Miss. Getting to feel like a national title is on the table in late-December would be monumental. Duh. Everyone knows that.

What everyone doesn’t know is how Ole Miss will be perceived if the regular season plays out this way. At LSU and home against Georgia are the 2 biggest games on the schedule. If the latter includes a Dart-less Ole Miss struggling to keep pace with the Dawgs, the selection committee could show some grace, especially if Ole Miss racks up style points before and after that.

But that’ll be the debate. Winning at home against Oklahoma could be the only other opportunity for a quality win, at least by national standards. Producing a prolific, top-10 offense with an improved defense will be vital.

I’m banking on that. I’m banking on this year’s squad passing whatever sort of “eye test” is needed for Ole Miss to start and stay in the Playoff picture all season. If that’s the conversation heading into the Playoff, everything after that is gravy. Even a loss to Alabama in the Round of 12 — that’s what I have projected — would still be a successful season.

It just might not be the best season since the Nixon administration.